An umbrella review of health co-benefits from actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

BACKGROUND: There have been many modelled studies of potential health co-benefits from actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but so far there have been no large-scale attempts to compare the magnitude of health and climate effects across sectors, countries, and study designs. METHODS: As part of the Pathfinder Initiative project an umbrella review of studies was done, and 26 previous reviews were identified with 57 primary studies included. Studies included in the review were required to have quantified changes in greenhouse gas emissions and health effects (or risk factors) from defined actions to reduce climate effects. Study data were extracted and harmonised by standardising impact measures per 100 000 of the national population (or urban population for city-level actions), averaging effects over a 1-year period and aggregating actions into their respective sectors by use of a predefined framework. FINDINGS: From 200 mitigation actions, the majority were in the agriculture, forestry, and land use sector (103 actions [52%]), followed by the transport sector (43 actions [22%]). The largest effects on greenhouse gas emissions were seen from actions in the energy sector, and these actions also had substantial health co-benefits in lower middle-income countries, although benefits were smaller in high-income settings. The greatest health benefits were seen from actions to change diets and introduce clean cookstoves. The major pathways to health were through reduced air pollution, healthier diets, and increased physical activity from switching to active travel modes. Effect sizes tended to be larger from national modelling studies and smaller from localised or implemented actions. INTERPRETATION: The potential co-benefits to health from actions to reduce climate change are large, but most evidence still comes from modelling studies and from high-income and middle-income countries. There are also major context-dependent differences in the magnitude of effects found, so actions need to be tailored to the local context and careful attention needs to be paid to potential trade-offs and spillover effects. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust and the Oak Foundation.

Healthcare in the era of climate change and the need for environmental sustainability.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is an existential threat to humanity. While the healthcare sector must manage the health-related consequences of climate change, it is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for up to 4.6% of global emission, aggravating global warming. Within the hospital environment, the three largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are the operating theatre, intensive care unit and gastrointestinal endoscopy. Knowledge of the health-related burden of climate change and the potential transformative health benefits of climate action is important to all health professionals, as they play crucial roles in effecting change. This article summarises the available literature on the impact of healthcare on climate change and efforts in mitigation, focusing on the intrinsic differences and similarities across the operating theatre complex, intensive care unit and gastrointestinal endoscopy unit. It also discusses strategies to reduce carbon footprint.

Greenhouse gas emissions from on-site sanitation systems: A systematic review and meta-analysis of emission rates, formation pathways and influencing factors.

Onsite sanitation systems (OSS) are significant sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). While a handful of studies have been conducted on GHG emissions from OSS, systematic evaluation of literature on this subject is limited. Our systematic review and meta-analysis provides state-of-the- art information on GHG emissions from OSS and identifies novel areas for investigation. The paper analyzes GHG emission rates from different OSS, the influence of various design, operational, and environmental factors on emission rates and proffers mitigation measures. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, we identified 16 articles which quantified GHG emissions from OSS. Septic tanks emit substantial amounts of CO2 and CH4 ranging from 1.74 to 398.30 g CO2/cap/day and 0.06-110.13 g CH4/cap/day, respectively, but have low N2O emissions (0.01-0.06 g N2O/cap/day). CH4 emissions from pit latrines range from 0.77 to 20.30 g CH4/cap/day N2O emissions range from 0.76 to 1.20 gN2O/cap/day. We observed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05) between temperature, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, storage period, and GHG emissions from OSS. However, no significant correlation (p > 0.05) was observed between soil volumetric water content and CO2 emissions. CH4 emissions (expressed as CO2 equivalents) from OSS estimated following Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines were found to be seven times lower (90.99 g CO2e/cap/day) than in-situ field emission measurements (704.7 g CO2e/cap/day), implying that relying solely on IPCC guidelines may lead to underestimation of GHG emission from OSS. Our findings underscore the importance of considering local contexts and environmental factors when estimating GHG emissions from OSS. Plausible mitigation measures for GHG emissions from OSS include converting waste to biogas in anaerobic systems (e.g. biogas), applying biochar, and implementing mitigation policies that equally address inequalities in sanitation service access. Future research on GHG from OSS should focus on in-situ measurements of GHGs from pit latrines and other common OSS in developing countries, understanding the fate and transport of dissolved organics like CH4 in OSS effluents and impacts of microbial communities in OSS on GHG emissions. Addressing these gaps will enable more holistic and effective management of GHG emissions from OSS.

Diverse type I and type II methanotrophs cultivated from an Indian freshwater wetland habitat

Wetlands are the main natural sources of methane emissions, which make up a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Such wetland patches serve as rich habitats for aerobic methanotrophs. Limited knowledge of methanotrophs from tropical wetlands widens the scope of study from these habitats. In the present study, a freshwater wetland in a tropical region in India was sampled and serially diluted to obtain methanotrophs in culture. This was followed by the isolation of methanotrophs on agarose-containing plates, incubated under methane: air atmosphere. Methanotrophs are difficult to cultivate, and very few cultures of methanotrophs are available from tropical wetlands. Our current study reports the cultivation of a diverse community of methanotrophs from six genera, namely, Methylomonas, Methylococcus, Methylomagnum, Methylocucumis (type I methanotrophs) along with Methylocystis, Methylosinus (type II methanotrophs). A high abundance of methanotrophs (106–1010 methanotrophs/g fresh weight) was observed in the samples. A Methylococcus strain could represent a putative novel species that was also isolated. Cultures of Methylomagnum and Methylocucumis, two newly described type I methanotrophs exclusively found in rice fields, were obtained. A large number of Methylomonas koyamae strains were cultured. Our study is pioneering in the documentation of culturable methanotrophs from a typical tropical wetland patch. The isolated methanotrophs can act as models for studying methanotroph-based methane mitigation from wetland habitats and can be used for various mitigation and valorization applications. (AU)

Uncertainty analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of monorail transit during the construction.

This paper examines the uncertainty of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during monorail construction. Firstly, a deterministic analysis is conducted. Subsequently, the obtained data are evaluated using the data quality indicator (DQI), and a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is employed to assume different parameter distributions. The results of the deterministic calculation indicate that the calculated emissions per unit area of the station amount to 1.97 ton CO2e/m2, while the calculated emissions per unit section length reach 7.55 ton CO2e/m2. To simulate parameter distribution, we utilize a Beta distribution with good shape applicability. Furthermore, we establish scenarios involving system boundary reduction, low-emission factors, and reduced material and energy inputs in order to analyze scenario uncertainties. Regarding model uncertainty, this paper assumes that the material and energy quantity data conform to the normal, log-normal, uniform, and triangular distributions, respectively, subsequently analyzing the uncertainty distributions. This paper analyzes the GHG emission uncertainty evaluation of 16 monorail stations and sections during the construction period, which is divided into parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty. We provide a concrete framework for studying uncertainties related to GHG emissions at stations and sections during the monorail construction period. The scenario analysis results will help to make decisions about the choice of parameters, system boundaries, and other settings. It provides new guidance for emission reduction policies, such as reducing the use of steel-related products or using alternative environmentally friendly materials, considering emission reduction factors more comprehensively and setting emission reduction factors according to uniform distribution principle as far as possible.

Food matters: Dietary shifts increase the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement.

A transition to healthy diets such as the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet could considerably reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the specific contributions of dietary shifts for the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways remain unclear. Here, we use the open-source integrated assessment modeling (IAM) framework REMIND-MAgPIE to compare 1.5°C pathways with and without dietary shifts. We find that a flexitarian diet increases the feasibility of the Paris Agreement climate goals in different ways: The reduction of GHG emissions related to dietary shifts, especially methane from ruminant enteric fermentation, increases the 1.5°C compatible carbon budget. Therefore, dietary shifts allow to achieve the same climate outcome with less carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and less stringent CO2 emission reductions in the energy system, which reduces pressure on GHG prices, energy prices, and food expenditures.

Greenhouse gas production from an intermittently dosed cold-climate wastewater treatment wetland.

This study explores the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from a two-stage, cold-climate vertical-flow treatment wetland (TW) treating ski area wastewater at 3 °C average water temperature. The system is designed like a modified Ludzack-Ettinger process with the first stage a partially saturated, denitrifying TW followed by an unsaturated nitrifying TW and recycle of nitrified effluent. An intermittent wastewater dosing scheme was established for both stages, with alternating carbon-rich wastewater and nitrate-rich recycle to the first stage. The system has demonstrated effective chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) removal in high-strength wastewater over seven years of winter operation. Following two closed-loop, intensive GHG winter sampling campaigns at the TW, the magnitude of N2O flux was 2.2 times higher for denitrification than nitrification. CH4 and N2O emissions were strongly correlated with hydraulic loading, whereas CO2 was correlated with surface temperature. GHG fluxes from each stage were related to both microbial activity and off-gassing of dissolved species during wastewater dosing, thus the time of sampling relative to dosing strongly influenced observed fluxes. These results suggest that estimates of GHG fluxes from TWs may be biased if mass transfer and mechanisms of wastewater application are not considered. Emission factors for N2O and CH4 were 0.27 % as kg-N2O-N/kg-TINremoved and 0.04 % kg-CH4-C/kg-CODremoved, respectively. The system had observed seasonal emissions of 600.5 kg CO2 equivalent of GHGs estimated over 130-days of operation. These results indicate a need for wastewater treatment processes to mitigate GHGs.

Aging Increases Global Annual Food Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 300 Million Tonnes by 2100.

The dietary preferences of the elderly population exhibit distinct variations from the overall averages in most countries, gaining increasing significance due to aging demographics worldwide. These dietary preferences play a crucial role in shaping global food systems, which will result in changed environmental impacts in the future such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of population aging on the changes in GHG emissions from global food systems. To achieve this, we developed regional dietary coefficients (DCs) of the elderly based on the Global Dietary Database (GDD). We then reconciled the GDD with the dataset from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to calculate the food GHG emissions of the average population in each of the countries. By applying the DCs, we estimated the national food GHG emissions and obtained the variations between the emissions from aged and average populations. We employed a modified version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy model (RICE) to forecast the emission trends in different countries based on FAO and GDD data. This integrated approach allowed us to evaluate the dynamic relationships among aging demographics, food consumption patterns, and economic developments within regions. Our results indicate that the annual aging-embodied global food GHG emissions will reach 288 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) by 2100. This estimation is crucial for policymakers, entrepreneurs, and researchers as it provides insights into a potential future environmental challenge and emphasizes the importance of sustainable food production and consumption strategies to GHG emission mitigations associated with aging dietary patterns.

What is the environmental impact of a blood transfusion? A life cycle assessment of transfusion services across England.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare activities significantly contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Blood transfusions require complex, interlinked processes to collect, manufacture, and supply. Their contribution to healthcare emissions and avenues for mitigation is unknown. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a life cycle assessment (LCA) for red blood cell (RBC) transfusions across England where 1.36 million units are transfused annually. We defined the process flow with seven categories: donation, transportation, manufacturing, testing, stockholding, hospital transfusion, and disposal. We used direct measurements, manufacturer data, bioengineering databases, and surveys to assess electrical power usage, embodied carbon in disposable materials and reagents, and direct emissions through transportation, refrigerant leakage, and disposal. RESULTS: The central estimate of carbon footprint per unit of RBC transfused was 7.56 kg CO2 equivalent (CO2eq). The largest contribution was from transportation (2.8 kg CO2eq, 36% of total). The second largest was from hospital transfusion processes (1.9 kg CO2eq, 26%), driven mostly by refrigeration. The third largest was donation (1.3 kg CO2eq, 17%) due to the plastic blood packs. Total emissions from RBC transfusion are ~10.3 million kg CO2eq/year. DISCUSSION: This is the first study to estimate GHG emissions attributable to RBC transfusion, quantifying the contributions of each stage of the process. Primary areas for mitigation may include electric vehicles for the blood service fleet, improving the energy efficiency of refrigeration, using renewable sources of electricity, changing the plastic of blood packs, and using methods of disposal other than incineration.

A multi-scale framework for advancing national dairy sector GHG mitigation in Israel.

Dairy production systems display a wide range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission characteristics influenced by factors like geographical location, farm size, herd composition, milk yield, management practices, and existing infrastructure. Effective national GHG mitigation plans for the dairy industry should incorporate strategies that account for the diversity within this system. This paper aims to introduce a multi-scale framework to assess the GHG mitigation potential within the Israeli dairy system. It begins by analyzing the GHG intensity per unit of milk produced by a representative sample of 145 farms (20 % of the national dairy farms). It then extrapolates the data to the regional and national scales. The research reveals an average carbon footprint of 1.18 (ranging from 0.8 to 1.64) kg CO2e per kilogram of milk (FPCM) over the life cycle up to the farm gate. Upon scaling up, the study estimates the annual carbon footprint of the Israeli dairy industry at 1,777,800 t of CO2e. Consequently, this framework highlights areas with significant GHG emissions that require attention and opportunities for national mitigation based on the detailed characteristics of the studied systems.

Low-carbon city construction, spatial spillovers and greenhouse gas emission performance: Evidence from Chinese cities.

Low-carbon cities (LCC) are conducive to low-carbon development and reshaping the urban economic growth model. However, it is still unknown whether it has a synergistic mitigation effect on other greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study, a dataset comprising 283 Chinese cities spanning the period 2003 to 2019 is chosen. We employ spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) modeling to investigate both the impacts and mechanisms of LCC on GHG emissions performance. The results show that (1) LCC notably lowers local GHG emissions, enhances emission efficiency, and improves GHG emissions performance in neighboring cities within a 1000 km radius. (2) LCC indirectly enhances the GHG emissions performance of local and neighboring cities through energy intensity and green technology innovation. Notably, LCC boosts the local GHG emissions performance by industrial structure upgrading and resource allocation but harms the positive spillover effects on nearby cities due to the siphoning effect. (3) The effect and spatial impact of LCC on GHG emission performance is notably pronounced in eastern cities, non-resource cities, and key environmental protection areas. The results of the study will further promote the development of LCC and provide an important decision-making reference for urban low-carbon sustainability.

Crop byproducts supplemented in livestock feeds reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

Crop byproducts can be supplemented in livestock feeds to improve the utilization of resources and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We explored the mitigation potential of GHG emissions by supplementing crop byproducts in feeds based on a typical intensive dairy farm in China. Results showed that GHG emissions associated with production of forage were significantly decreased by 25.60 % when no GHG emissions were allocated to crop byproducts, and enteric methane emission was significantly decreased by 13.46 % on the basis of CO2 eq, g/kg fat and protein corrected milk. The supplementation did not affect lactation performance, rumen microbiota and microbial enzymes at the gene level. Metabolomics analysis revealed changes in amino acid catabolism of rumen fluid, which were probably responsible for more propionate production. In conclusion, supplementing crop byproducts in feeds can be a potential strategy to reduce GHG emissions of livestock.

In search for climate neutrality in ice hockey: A case of carbon footprint reduction in a Finnish professional team.

Mitigation actions in all sectors of society, including sports, to limit global warming have become an increasingly hot topic in public discussions and sports management. However, so far, there has been a lack of understanding and practical examples of how these organizations, especially in team sports, can holistically assess and reduce their climate impacts to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper presents a carbon footprint assessment, implemented actions for GHG emission reduction, and offers the example of a professional Finnish ice hockey team that achieved carbon neutrality. The study is based on a life cycle assessment method. The Results show that the team's carbon footprint was reduced from 350 tCO2eq by more than 50% between seasons 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 in the assessed categories. The most GHG emission reductions were achieved in the team's and spectators' mobility and ice hall energy consumption. Furthermore, the team compensated for their remaining emissions to achieve carbon neutrality. Multiple possibilities for further GHG emission reductions were recognized. The majority of the GHG emissions were linked to the Scope 3 category, indicating that co-operation with partners and stakeholders was a key to success in attaining carbon neutrality. This paper also discusses the possible limitations and challenges that sport organizations face in assessing climate impacts and reducing GHG emissions, as well as the prospects of overcoming them. Since there are many opportunities for sports to contribute to climate change mitigation, relevant targets and actions to reduce GHG emissions should be integrated into all sport organizations' management.

Subsidizing Grid-Based Electrolytic Hydrogen Will Increase Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Coal Dominated Power Systems.

Clean hydrogen has the potential to serve as an energy carrier and feedstock in decarbonizing energy systems, especially in "hard-to-abate" sectors. Although many countries have implemented policies to promote electrolytic hydrogen development, the impact of these measures on costs of production and greenhouse gas emissions remains unclear. Our study conducts an integrated analysis of provincial levelized costs and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for all hydrogen production types in China. We find that subsidies are critical to accelerate low carbon electrolytic hydrogen development. Subsidies on renewable-based hydrogen provide cost-effective carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission reductions. However, subsidies on grid-based hydrogen increase CO2e emissions even compared with coal-based hydrogen because grid electricity in China still relies heavily on coal power and likely will beyond 2030. In fact, CO2e emissions from grid-based hydrogen may increase further if China continues to approve new coal power plants. The levelized costs of renewable energy-based electrolytic hydrogen vary among provinces. Transporting renewable-based hydrogen through pipelines from low- to high-cost production regions reduces the national average levelized cost of renewables-based hydrogen but may increase the risk of hydrogen leakage and the resulting indirect warming effects. Our findings emphasize that policy and economic support for nonfossil electrolytic hydrogen is critical to avoid an increase in CO2e emissions as hydrogen use rises during a clean energy transition.

Cattle production strategies to deliver protein with less land and lower environmental impact.

Global land resources are over-exploited and natural habitats are declining, often driven by expanding livestock production. In Ireland, pastureland for grazing cattle and sheep account for circa 60% of terrestrial land use. The agriculture, forestry and other land use sector (AFOLU) is responsible for 44% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A new Grassland Animal response Model (GLAM) was developed to relate livestock-cohort grass and feed requirements to farm-grassland system areas, enhancing environmental assessment of prospective AFOLU configurations. Although land conversion targets are often well-defined, they tend to lack a clear definition of where land sparing can occur. Through analyses of 10 scenarios of milk and beef production and management strategies, we found that displacing beef cows with dairy cows can increase national protein output while sparing up to 0.75 million ha (18%) of grassland (albeit with a minor increase in overseas land requirement for additional concentrate feed). Reducing slaughter age, increasing exports of male dairy calves and increasing grassland use efficiency on beef farms each achieved between 0.19 and 0.32 million ha of land sparing. Sexed semen to achieve more favourable male-female birth ratios had a minor impact. GHG emissions, ammonia emissions and nutrient leaching were only reduced substantially when overall cattle numbers declined, confirming the need for cattle reductions to achieve environmental objectives. Nonetheless, application of GLAM shows potential for improved grass and cattle management to spare good quality land suitable for productive forestry and wetland restoration. This change is urgently needed to generate scalable carbon dioxide removals from the land sector in Ireland, and globally.

Reduction of cost and emissions by using recycling and waste management system.

In order to evaluate the level of sustainability of an integrated waste management system (IWMS), it is necessary to analyze the impact criteria. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide a model for IWMS optimization with the two goals of minimizing the cost and the emission of greenhouse gases of the entire system. Environmental and health problems caused by the lack of proper waste management include the increase in disease, increase in stray animals, pollution of air, water, land, etc. Therefore, it is very important to identify the indicators and improve the efficiency of the waste management system. In the present research, with descriptive-analytical approach, it has been tried to clarify and evaluate the effective indicators in two dimensions of production-segregation and collection-transportation, and find ways to improve the efficiency of the system. In this article, five waste management systems including, incineration, landfill without gas extraction system, plasma incineration, recycling and aerobic decomposition are introduced and their performance in energy production and emission reduction are compared. The results of the evaluation of the basic waste management system (b) show that the amount of pollution is equivalent to 850 kg CO2 per ton of waste. While the amount of emission in the fifth comprehensive management system is reduced to 450 kg CO2 per ton of waste. According to the results obtained in this study, in all the management systems presented, the process of burying waste in sanitary landfills has the greatest effect in increasing pollution. This means that the pollution caused by burying the waste in the sanitary landfill will be reduced with the construction of the gas extraction system and the plasma method and use in electricity production. Despite the increase in initial costs, using the right technology and using the right waste system based on the type of waste and waste recycling has an effect on the efficiency of the system.

Reassessing the greenhouse effect of biogenic carbon emissions in constructed wetlands.

Biogenic carbon emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), have emerged as a major concern during organic pollutant degradation within constructed wetlands (CWs). Since these organic compounds primarily originate from the photosynthetic fixation of atmospheric CO2, it potentially introduces uncertainty when assessing the greenhouse effect of biogenic carbon emissions in CWs based on direct field observations. To objectively assessing this effect, this study proposed a new strategy by quantifying CO2-equivalent (CO2-eq) changes as carbon passes through CWs and tested it in various types of CWs based on 64 literature records. The findings reveal that CWs can contribute to CO2-eq additions, yet are only responsible for 15.6% derived from direct field observations. The type of CWs plays a crucial role in these CO2-eq additions, with vertical flow CWs causing the lowest levels (6.8%), followed by surface flow CWs (14.2%). In contrast, horizontal flow CWs are associated with the strongest CO2-eq addition (25.7%). The findings provide new insights for the objective assessment of the greenhouse effect of biogenic carbon emissions in CWs, which will be beneficial for future life cycle assessment.

The race between global economic growth and carbon emissions: based on a comparative study of developed and developing countries.

In recent years, there has been a persistent intensification of the global greenhouse effect. Balancing carbon emission reduction with economic growth poses an unprecedented global challenge. To better comprehend the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, this study first utilized the Tapio decoupling index to compare the decoupling relationship (the USA, Japan, and Germany) and three developing countries (China, India, and Russia) from 2000-2020. Additionally, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was employed to investigate the factors influencing changes in carbon emissions. Our findings indicate that (1) the USA and Germany basically achieved strong decoupling; China, India, and Russia mainly showed weak decoupling; and Japan showed recessive decoupling. (2) Economic growth predominantly contributed to increased carbon emissions, with a lesser impact from population growth. A significant reduction in energy intensity restrained carbon emissions growth, as did energy structure replacement in most countries, excluding Japan. Based on this, a decoupling effort index was formulated. It has shown that the decoupling efforts made by developing countries are weaker than those of developed countries, primarily attributed to a lesser degree of decoupling between energy intensity and structure. This paper offers valuable insights for developing countries undergoing a low-carbon economic transformation. They should counterbalance carbon emission escalation resulting from economic growth through technological and energy structure improvements.

A multi-factor combination prediction model of carbon emissions based on improved CEEMDAN.

As the global greenhouse effect intensifies, carbon emissions are gradually becoming a hot topic of discussion. Accurate carbon emissions prediction is an important foundation to realize carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions. To accurately predict carbon emissions, a multi-factor combination prediction model based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), bidirectional long short-term memory optimized by lemurs optimizer (LOBiLSTM) and least squares support vector machine optimized by lemurs optimizer (LOLSSVM), named ICEEMDAN-LOBiLSTM-LOLSSVM, is proposed. Firstly, the influencing factors of carbon emissions are selected by Spearman correlation coefficient, and carbon emissions are decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) by ICEEMDAN. Secondly, the influencing factors and IMFs are input into LOBiLSTM and LOLSSVM respectively for prediction. Then, the point prediction results are obtained by weighting the prediction results of LOBiLSTM and LOLSSVM. Finally, probability density function of point prediction error is calculated by kernel density estimation, and the interval prediction results are calculated according to different confidence intervals. Carbon emissions of China and Germany are selected to verify the superiority of ICEEMDAN-LOBiLSTM-LOLSSVM. The experiment shows that RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2 of the proposed model are 0.4468, 0.3612, 0.0120, and 0.9839 respectively for China, which is the best among the nine models, as well as for Germany.

Structural characteristics and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions at county-level and long-time scales: A case study of the Anji County, China.

To achieve carbon neutrality, the Chinese government needs to gain a comprehensive understanding of the sources and drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly at the county level. Anji County in eastern China is a typical example of an industrial transformation from quarrying to a low-carbon economy. This study analyzed the decoupling types and structural characteristics of GHG emissions and the driving factors of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Anji from 2006 to 2019, and explored the differences between county-level and provincial-level or city-level results. It was observed that energy-related activities are the main source of GHG emissions in Anji and that economic development is the driving factor behind the increasing CO2 emissions. However, industrial transformation and upgradation coupled with the alternative use of clean energy limit the growth of GHG emissions. This study details the GHG emissions of county during the industrial transformation stage and provides corresponding policy recommendations for county governments.